I am quite confident that Iran does not wish to go to war: Professor Ferraro

The tension between Iran and the US has not finished and is escalating into crisis. On Thursday, American President Donald Trump called off an airstrike on Iran with only 10 minutes to spare after Iranian forces shot down a US drone plane. It came after Donald Trump had accused Iran of being behind attacks on two oil tankers in a key shipping route in the Gulf of Oman, which the US called "hostile behavior".

Iran denies any involvement in the attacks on oil tankers, and said it would no longer stick to international agreements made about its nuclear ambitions. We have had an interview about this issue with a political science professor, Vincent Ferraro.

Professor Vincent Ferraro is the Ruth Lawson Professor of Politics at Mount Holyoke College, where he has been teaching since 1976. His research focuses on changes in international relations since the Cold War, and he teaches courses on World Politics, American Foreign Policy and International Political Economy. Professor Ferraro previously served as the academic consultant to the United Nations Association of the United States and to the United Nations Development Program.

Here is our exclusive interview with Professor Ferraro:

Q. As probably you know, After Trump's withdrawal from JCPOA and re-imposing sanctions against Iran, many occurrences happened in the Middle East. Now, what do you think about the future? How far Trump goes about Iran?

A. It is difficult for me to answer your question. I am quite confident that Iran does not wish to go to war. But the US is highly conflicted. Trump does not wish to go to war (he knows that a war would seriously harm the US and global economy, an outcome that would jeopardize his re-election. But his advisers, Bolton and Pompeo, as well as his allies, Netanyahu and bin Salman, would very much like a war that they believe would bring about regime change in Iran (an outcome that I personally doubt).

Q. Does he attack if Iran will shot another drone or something like that? Is war possible?

A. As long as Iran plays the very delicate game of raising the costs of shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz without the loss of life, I suspect that Trump's point of view will prevail. But once lives are lost, then I think that the hard-liners in the US Administration will gain greater influence. It is very important that Iran not force Trump into a corner that he believes undermines his bellicose rhetoric.

Q. How much destroying would be if a war happened in the Middle East?

A. If conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will be very difficult to restrain Israel and Saudi Arabia from taking actions that will force the US hand. The consequent conflict would be very damaging and difficult to end. I am hoping that cooler heads prevail.